IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PULSES PRODUCTION IN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA, PAKISTAN: A PANEL DATA PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Climate change and crop production are intrinsically associated with each other. This research endeavor is designed to analyze the impact of climate variability on pulses production in Southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province of Pakistan. Two pulses (i.e. chickpea and mung bean) were selected for this research study with respect to climate change. Climatic variables such as temperature, humidity and precipitation along with pulses production and area under cultivation of pulses were encompassed as the major variables of this study. Secondary data of climatic variables and crop variables for the period of thirty-six years (1986-2022) were obtained from Pakistan Metrological Department and Agriculture Statistics of KP respectively. Panel data set of chickpea and mung bean crops was estimated separately. The Shapiro-Wilk test was estimated to assess normality, resulting in a P-value of 0.63 which confirmed P-value as insignificant, hence we accepted the null hypothesis, concluding that the data follow a normal distribution. For the Wooldridge test, F-value was 6.39, with a P-value of 0.0717. This P-value is also insignificant at the 5% level, leading us to accept the null hypothesis and conclude that there is no issue of serial correlation. The analysis validates that both data sets were a balanced panel data. The Hausman specification test was run separately for both the panel data sets whose findings had suggested the fixed effect model can be deemed as an appropriate model for chickpea panel data, however random effect model was appropriate for estimation of the panel data of mung bean. Major findings confirm that maximum temperature is statistically significant for the chickpea yield. This implies if maximum temperature increases by 1 ⁰C, it can enhance the chickpea yield by 0.0463 units. However, the impact of precipitation was reported insignificant. The overall result suggested that climate has a significant impact on chickpea yield in the study area for the said time span. The R-square value is calculated as 0.537 which means that 53% variation in the chickpea yield is due to explanatory variables. Furthermore, the humidity was statistically significant and has a positive association with chickpea yield. In case of mung bean, the minimum temperature was significantly contributing to the yield of mung bean. The estimates further illustrate that the humidity contribution towards Mung Bean yield is observed as significant which reflects that if humidity increase by 1 percent can enhance the mung-bean's yield by 0.023 units. The R-square value is calculated as 0.577 which means that 57 percent variation in the Mung Bean yield is due to explanatory variables. This study concludes that temperature and humidity can significantly contribute to enhance the pulses yield.  It is recommended that capacity building of pulses growers may be made to adapt the climate change strategies. Such strategies may include water harvesting methods to ensure sustainable irrigation supply, mitigating the effects of erratic rainfall caused by climate change. Moreover, government may ensure the availability of heat or drought-tolerant varieties of pulses to encourage the pulses cultivation.