DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PAKISTAN: AN ARDL APPROACH

Abstract

Economic growth is significant for a country’s development and wealth. It leads to an improved standard of living, as high income leads to better facilities for education, healthcare, and job opportunities. The study used the time series data that starts from 1972-2023 in Pakistan. The study uses an autoregressive distributed lag model to determine the link between demographic change and growth. The study finds out that population density, ratio of labor force working-age population, and total dependency ratio have a negative relationship with GDP per capita growth. These variables have long-term negative impacts if not properly managed. Education, gross domestic savings, and life expectancy have a positive impact on growth, as higher education, life expectancy, and savings lead to higher production and investment respectively boosting the economy. Overall study concludes that the population has a great burden on the economic growth of Pakistan. If a population is not controlled, it can be very harmful to the economy so understanding economic growth and demographic factors is the key to making future plans.