EXPLORING CRIMINAL BEHAVIOUR THROUGH PSYCHOLOGICAL AND CRIMINOLOGICAL LENSES:A STUDY OF RAPE OFFENDING IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN

Abstract

Rape offending remains one of the most severe forms of violent crime and poses enduring social, psychological, and legal challenges in Pakistan. Punjab, the country’s most populous province, consistently reports the highest incidence of sexual violence but maintains persistently low conviction rates. This study examines the psychological and criminological dimensions of rape offending in Punjab using a mixed-methods design. Secondary data from official reports (2018–2024) were analyzed alongside a simulated offender dataset (N = 200) capturing demographic, behavioral, and contextual variables. Descriptive findings indicate that Punjab accounts for approximately 94.5% of reported rape cases nationwide, with conviction rates averaging below 5%. Logistic regression analyses (simulated) showed that prior criminal history (OR = 2.1, p < .01), substance use (OR = 1.8, p < .05), and low educational attainment (OR = 1.6, p < .05) significantly increased the likelihood of offending. Integrating psychological constructs—such as hostile masculinity, low empathy, and cognitive distortions with criminological perspectives on social disorganization, routine activity, and patriarchal power structures offers a multidimensional understanding of rape offending. The study underscores systemic failures in law enforcement, victim protection, and judicial processes that perpetuate impunity. Policy recommendations include offender rehabilitation, gender-sensitive education, enhanced investigative capacity, and data-driven criminal profiling. Findings highlight the need for interdisciplinary strategies to address and prevent rape offending in South Asia.